Game consoles are an "endangered species," says Don Daglow . The Californian is an industry legend. With "Dungeon" he developed one of the first computer role-playing games in the mid-1970s.
Why shouldn't a console soon be part of the Smart TV instead of an extra box? He asks his audience at the Berlin developer conference Quo Vadis. He expects the consoles to die out by 2027, says Daglow, thereby topping his announcement. Actually, he just wanted to give a glimpse of what's going to happen in the gaming industry by 2022.
Whereby "only" is a crazy term. The example of Virtual Reality (VR) shows how much can change within five years: After a flop in the 1990s , technology was hardly an issue for gamers. Then a prototype of the Oculus Rift was introduced in 2012 . In 2014 Facebook bought the company behind it, last year the glasses came on the market - alongside several competing products. VR was back.
But as difficult as it is to predict gaming trends, there is so much appeal and pressure to do so: for game manufacturers, for hardware companies, for investors - also because the development of games and the right devices often takes years.
Based on Daglow's lecture and our own interviews, we set up five theses about the near future of the industry:
1) VR gaming will not replace normal gaming.
The hype about virtual reality is big and rightly so: no other kind of gaming offers such intense experiences as with VR glasses and hand controllers. Seldom, for example, could you feel so much like a superhero as in "Superhot VR": In slow motion, you evade deadly bullets with real movements, rip the pistol from your opponent's hand to switch him off at the last second.
In the near future, the glasses should become cheaper and the range of permanently motivating VR games will grow. Nevertheless, it seems foreseeable that normal gaming - with gamepad, mouse and keyboard - will not be replaced by VR.
Because many players do not play to escape to other worlds. A round of "Fifa" or "Counter-Strike" helps many people relax, they appreciate being able to do it on the side. VR, on the other hand, always demands full attention. VR games with motion control are often physically demanding. VR is therefore a fascinating addition to normal gaming for gamers, not a substitute.
"I think it is likely that VR will become something for special occasions or special content," said game researcher Jesper Juul from Copenhagen . You will be able to experience the technology in amusement parks or at exhibitions: "But we will not necessarily use VR every day."
2) We will be able to play almost anything almost anywhere.
At the latest "Pokémon Go" has shown how much mobile games can influence everyday life. So far, the games we play on the go have often been different, simpler than the ones we play at home on the game console or on the PC. Devices such as the Nintendo Switch released in early 2017 and companion apps for blockbuster games are increasingly blurring this limit.
Two developments that fuel each other could tear the line further: On the one hand, the Internet connections are getting better, the data volumes are bigger, which will make it possible, for example, to play more complex games on mobile devices - because they are not streamed directly on the device, but are streamed .
Woman with HoloLens glasses
BECK DIEFENBACH / REUTERS On the other hand, various companies are working on augmented reality glasses that expand reality and display virtual things in the normal field of vision.
Glasses like the HoloLens from Microsoft would be an obvious way to make games like "Pokémon Go" more impressive and easier to play on the side.
"In the next five years, Apple or anyone else will be launching a consumer version of such hardware with which things like Facebook are right in front of their eyes," believes game developer and consultant Christian Fonnesbech . "Augmented Reality will take over my contact lenses and your glasses."
With good AR glasses you can also play normal games everywhere, says Fonnesbech - on the glasses instead of on a normal screen. And you could switch between VR and AR at any time with the same device. "You will ask yourself: Do I want a game with half or full immersion?" Says Fonnesbech.
Sony's top Playstation official Jim Ryan, who already runs such an offer with Playstation Now in some countries , also sees great progress in game streaming . Streaming in the games area is still a small business, with more complex hurdles than with music or films, says the Sony manager, but then points to technical progress: "Something that was unsolvable five years ago can now be solved very well . "
3) It gets harder for classic solo games.
There are already many games that could be played without end - because they are constantly being expanded thanks to regular updates. If games used to be a hobby, today the market is so diverse that "League of Legends" or "Destiny" could be seen as your own hobbies.
Other areas of the industry suffer from the great attention that such games attract, in part also through e-sports tournaments: For example, the developers of classic single-player games - adventures, for example - find it more difficult to make a living from their products - also because they are usually only paid once when buying the game. Subscription models, on the other hand, promise income for years.
"Many game companies depend on making vinyl records," says consultant Fonnesbech, who is convinced that games without online functions will become a niche. "I still want good stories," he says. "But I want to experience it with my friends. We only saw the beginning of what multiplayer means."
Industry legend Daglow believes that game prices will also determine what players try. "Free-to-play and 99-cent titles damage sales of higher-priced games that are not sequels or have known licenses," he says.
4) New ideas are more important than graphic effects.
Don Daglow believes that the development of graphic quality is no longer so important: the success of a game does not depend on whether it runs at 60 frames per second or has good lighting. "We used to say when we were eating: if we can get 256 colors, everything will change," he says. "Today, images have to move so that we can still see a difference in quality."
Worldwide surprise hit "Minecraft"
TeamMojang In fact, the biggest surprise success of recent years was "Minecraft" - a game that convinced by its possibilities, not by its look - although it came in an unmistakable block look. Jesper Juul from Copenhagen says: "We don't expect most games to be 'photorealistic', but that they have a sense of style."
Johanna Pirker, games researcher at Graz University of Technology , hopes that VR will provide new impetus. Most classic game concepts cannot be implemented one-to-one, she says, so developers are required to try new things. "When it comes to creativity, the biggest leaps are possible," says Pirker. "Just because the industry is becoming increasingly colorful and that people can get involved more easily, we will experience innovations - for example in the form of new genres."
5. Small moments of frustration in games become rare.
Well-known game concepts such as open-world games will still make leaps in quality - thanks to science. "There is a research field where it is about optimizing small experiences," says Johanna Pirker: "Games User Research".
Many found frustrating: Inventory system from "Resident Evil Zero"
Capcom Larger manufacturers such as Electronic Arts or Ubisoft would already try to identify and get rid of annoying little things in games with appropriate departments and test subjects - such as annoying inventory systems. "My hope is that smaller studios will soon be able to afford something like this," says Pirker.
Scientifically improved, the games of the future could offer fewer frustrating moments, generally run smoother - regardless of whether you experience them in VR, in AR or as before with the gamepad from the couch.
By the way, Playstation manager Jim Ryan said about Daglow's prediction of console extinction, as early as 2013 - when Playstation 4 and Xbox One were launched - there were a lot of people who predicted that the consoles would fail - because the era of gaming devices was over . "People were wrong," says Ryan, "clearly."